Six years ago this week there were bushfires raging in Australia, which were moderately inconvenient for a few people. The majority of people may have had to endure some slight haze, and crimson skies at sunrise and sunset. It was no big deal back in 2014 and residents kept calm and carried on.
In 2020, Australia has many regions which have now been in drought for a decade. Tinder-dry scrub has not been burned off, back-burned or cleaned up for many years, as it was not seen safe to do so at the times in which it was proposed.
How is that working out for you now?
Whilst many rush to point fingers at governments, environmentalists, arsonists or others, this blaming and shaming does not a) put out the fires which are blazing now, or b) prevent further fires.
As with many situations, it is all too easy to criticise and much harder to come up with a future plan. Australia is burning, for a variety of reasons which we will not go into here. Widespread bush fires have drawn attention from the international community, including celebrities in the UK and USA who have donated hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars to help, including $750 000 just from one artist (P!nk: apparently she is a fan of koalas).
Many in the crypto community have also donated vast resources of water, food and cryptocurrency to volunteer firefighters. To those who have given money, given supplies or volunteered their time to battle the blazes, we salute you. To those who wish to abuse, accuse, shame and blame, we say “get up or shut up”.
If you are doing nothing to fight the deadly fires, then take some action or hush your mouth. Australia doesn’t need more hot air circulating; it needs an immediate solution and a long-term plan.
Whilst bushfires dominate the news in Australia, even reaching to USA & UK, other countries are also doing things. The USA is being pulled between updates on presidential impeachment versus a possible war in Iran, the UK is distracted by Brexit and much of Asia is excited about Chinese New Year.
Bitcoin: bigger than Jesus?
As we have said numerous times, bitcoin falls in December and rises at Easter. It’s been happening for ten years now, it’s the opposite of the Jesus myth and it bears repeating every year, because every year, a) millions of newbies enter the crypto space, and b) millions of experienced people forget the rules.
Check the charts for ten years of Bitcoin and you will see the “December Drop” occurring. It’s not perfect, as it may be a couple of weeks early or a couple of weeks late, but it is always there. As the grandfather of all cryptocurrencies, BTC usually leads and the rest of the market follows; whether into decline or recovery.
There are a few scant exceptions to the rule, of course. Even during huge stock market drops like 9/11 or the GFC, there were a handful of stocks which rose and defied the downward trend. It would be great to know which ones will flaunt the rules before this occurs, but crystal balls are not always available in advance of their required use.
Spies and Lies -- What’s happening in Cryptopia?
Aside from questions such as “is the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto just a guy called Craig, or is Craig lying?” or “will John McAfee eat his manhood, or was he lying?”, there are still question marks over many crypto projects and their creators.
Will Ripple be used by every known bank, or is it dead? Will Ethereum be the blockchain on which most future projects are built, or is it dead? What new technologies will be added to bitcoin to bring the ‘old school crypto’ into the 2020’s?
Will Facebook ever see its Libra crypto approved by financial regulators, or will Zuke bypass authority and just launch a rogue one? Will the launch of a state-sanctioned cryptocurrency in China see copycat cryptos from other nations?
What are the implications for the $US, the SWIFT system and the Bretton-Woods monetary system if countries create currencies which are not linked to the USD (the erstwhile ‘world currency’?)
There are many more questions and too few answers. If you have heard a few theories, then perhaps some of them may be correct. If cryptocurrency creation empowers a few nations to have borderless trade, and be freed from possible US sanctions, then this may have many favourable outcomes for the general public.
You may not be in the market for purchasing 10 000 barrels of oil from Kuwait, but if you can buy a few Cuban cigars, some French champagne and some gadgets from China without having to pay extra tariffs or taxes, that may be a good thing. No judgement: you do you.
Of course, with some countries, there may be issues with cash bans and government controlled crypto. We are looking at you, China, as you have already implemented widespread facial recognition software and a ‘Black Mirror/ Big Brother’ type system of social control.
Citizens in China who drop litter, fail to pick up after their dog, or just do other things which may be perceived as ‘unneighbourly’ can be downvoted and may have trouble applying for loans, property or other things which may be deemed financial or essential for life.
When the government implements fully digital cash (quasi-cryptocurrency), perceived “bad citizens” may have all their funds frozen, effectively evicting them from the economy. It may seem unlikely but it could happen.
It’s easy to say “that wouldn’t happen in my country” but it’s impossible to say that it is actually impossible. Worse things have been voted on and approved by supposedly better governments. Space precludes us from weighing in on all government disasters, like anti-discrimination rules which protect bigots or homophobes, funding of climate change denial, the reasoning behind tens of thousands of major corporations paying less tax than a nurse, and the creation of privately-owned, non-government tax offices and central banks. Those are all stories for another day.
For now, simply understand that the government has access to millions of security cameras, has access to facial recognition software, can easily implement forms of social control, and can convince enough people that it will be “for their own protection”. You could try to vote against it, or you could just accept it as inevitable and do your best to be a model citizen (at least in public; in your own home you can use Tor, VPN’s and cryptocurrency).
Are altcoins down and out, or is fashion circular?
If you have been in crypto for a while, you have probably seen similar headlines a few times. When bitcoin takes a drop, altcoins are often hit harder, and stay down longer. This often prompts views like “alts are dead” or “will it ever be alt season again?”
If bitcoin is seen as “digital gold”, with as much volatility, similar scarcity and long-term growth, then alts could be the broader stock market. There are some stocks which are almost perennial such as construction, technology and pharmaceuticals, whilst others may be passing fads (eg. Fashion labels).
We cannot judge the entire altcoin market any more than we can judge the entire stock market. In times of war, recession, depression and conflict, it’s true that many stocks fall, but some rise. As it may be 80% of stocks falling during hard times, the “average” market will be down, but those who hold the 20% of rising stocks will celebrate.
It’s true that some altcoins have dropped up to 99% from their All-Time Highs (ATH), and if you have a few of these in your swag, you may feel just as down as their prices. We cannot promise that all will bounce back, but some may. Even mega-corporations such as Apple and Amazon have dropped massively in their wild and reckless past, so if you can live without the money, we suggest to set the holdings aside and check them again in 2025. Some may rise 1000% and some may drop to zero; either way, you will have a story to tell the grandchildren.
Fashions from the 1950’s and 1960’s fell out of favour for a decade or two; some company stock has also played the wallflower for a few bad years before triumphantly bouncing back. Crypto is a marathon, not a sprint. Hang in there if you can; seek professional advice if you cannot.
Closer to home: how are the Boston babies?
We continue to HODL most positions and monitor for new opportunities. Meanwhile, we earn up to 6% interest on some of our holdings thanks to companies such as Celsius (the UNbank for crypto customers). This helps to level out some of the daily fluctuations and interest is paid weekly, compounding returns. As the Celsius Network buys the CEL tokens from the market each week to pay interest, there is a guaranteed demand for them.
The ‘blockchain agnostic’ ChainLink token is also rising, due to the many projects on many blockchains to which it can lend itself. Even if a blockchain such as Ethereum or DAG falls out of mainstream use, there may still be enough users to require a permanent translation and communication service. There is only a tiny fraction of the world surfing the web on Linux versus Windows or iOS, however they still use agnostic modems with which to talk to the rest of the world.
Our standouts for this month:
Celsius CEL up 266%
ChainLink LINK up 165%
Binance BNB up 116%
Honorary mention to Budbo, BAT and WANchain who have dropped only as much as BTC and are still hanging in there even as their counterparts have tumbled.
(By way of example, last month SnagRide was up 111%, now it is down 75% -- similar to the almost 80% drop in heretofore crypto-darling Ethereum. This is the #worldofcrypto and it is not for the faint of heart. Perhaps SNAG will bounce back like Apple once did. Perhaps it will disappear like Kodak or BlockBuster. Ride-sharing companies are waging war at present, and there are many more competitors entering the market. After the dust clears, we hope to see a strong winner emerge in the next 2-3 years. Until then, we wait, hold and look for other opportunities.)
BostonCoin NAV at 27/12/2019
SWAG your tail with pride
There are very few BostonCoin promotional puppy items available in our swag bag from 2019. T-shirts and tote bags were very popular and ran out fast.
You can still win a puppy mug or BOS unisex watch by sharing a link to this newsletter on social media using hashtag #BostonCoin, or if you have no friends or no social media, you can purchase one for $20, a saving of $10 on retail price. Drop an email to firstname.lastname@example.org to grab a bargain as the standard price still applies on www.BostonTrading.co